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Water woes will have multiple impacts in Peru

Location:

PERU

As well as exposure to the El Nino phenomenon, Peru is one of the Latin American countries most susceptible to climate change. Erratic rainfall patterns threaten agriculture…

West Africa faces a future of recurring intense heat

Location:

WEST AFRICA

The researchers found that the heatwave would likely not have occurred if global temperatures remained at pre-industrial levels. Several factors worsened the heatwave’s impact and…

Prospects for the oil market in 2024

Location:

PROSPECTS 2024

This is likely if the Chinese and US economies slow as expected and the trade recovery disappoints. The much more bullish OPEC forecasts would see OPEC+ able to return some supply…

Gaza overspill is a possible risk to Balkan security

Location:

BALKANS

After an incident in late September that left one Kosovar police officer and three Serbian gunmen dead, the dispute over Kosovo’s sovereignty has become more dangerous, prompting…

Thailand will pursue a more proactive foreign policy

Location:

THAILAND

Thailand is devoting more attention to foreign policy under Srettha. The fallout from the 2006 and 2014 coups adversely affected its foreign relations, but it retains an important…

Nepal’s new ruling coalition will be unstable

Location:

NEPAL

His Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) now has fewer governing partners. The reconfiguration included cutting ties with Sher Bahadur Deuba’s Nepali Congress, the largest…

Threats of instability in Libya abound in 2024

Location:

LIBYA

While a 2020 ceasefire still holds, in the absence of new elections, the political landscape is significantly undermined by institutional rivalry. The country's fragmentation…

South-east Asia may align more with China in near term

Location:

SOUTH-EAST ASIA

A key finding is that 50.5% of respondents would pick China if forced to take sides in US-Chinese rivalry, up from 38.9% in 2023. China continues to be regarded as the most…

Saudi capital spending allocations are on the rise

Location:

SAUDI ARABIA

However, because of the large surplus of 2.5% recorded in that year, Riyadh’s public debt is only about 25% of GDP, providing the government and the country’s sovereign wealth…

Risks will outweigh recovery chances in Eastern Europe

Location:

EASTERN EUROPE

The economic environment has been dictated by Russia’s war in Ukraine and its market and policy implications. Next year, the prospects for the V4 economies are moderately upbeat…