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Street pressures will erode elite cohesion in Cuba

Location:

CUBA

The government is nevertheless shaken. Protests were triggered by severe economic hardship, and reflect a loss of public confidence that the government can improve matters. The…

Burundi’s new president faces old challenges

Location:

BURUNDI

Though elected on May 20, Ndayishimiye was not expected to take power until August. However, this timetable was accelerated following the unexpected death of incumbent President…

Prospects for Afghanistan to end-2020

Location:

PROSPECTS H2 2020

Prospects for Afghanistan to end-2020.

Ethiopia teeters on the brink of civil war

Location:

ETHIOPIA

These developments threaten to ignite a multi-dimensional civil war pitting Tigrayan against federal and Amhara regional forces.

Ethiopia's Tigray-federal standoff may escalate

Location:

ETHIOPIA

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has dismissed the possibility of a resort to force, but relations with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) regional government are rapidly…

New Ugandan opposition alliance faces mixed prospects

Location:

UGANDA

Announced on June 15, the ‘United Forces of Change’ brings together Wine’s ‘People Power’ movement and Besigye’s ‘People’s Government’ pressure group.

Inflation and inequality to pressure Cuban government

Location:

CUBA

Price hikes for petrol, electricity, water and gas are among several adjustment measures that will drive up living costs, compounding already high inflation. Meanwhile…

COVID-19 will shape Argentine debt and poverty plans

Location:

ARGENTINA

The government has again extended its self-imposed deadline to complete debt restructuring talks until June 12 and there is increased optimism about an eventual deal despite last…

China’s European partners will reassess 17+1 forum

Location:

EUROPE/CHINA

China was keen to send aid, but the experience has nevertheless led to reassessments of China’s engagement with the network’s members, the tangible results and the management of…

Virus second wave will derail Greek budget forecasts

Location:

GREECE

The official baseline is for an 8.2% GDP contraction in 2020, and a 7.5% rebound in 2021. It took into account moderate restrictions on movement in winter 2020/21, but the…