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Ethiopia teeters on the brink of civil war

Content type:: Expert Briefings
Location:: ETHIOPIA
Keywords associated with this article:: Geographic: Ethiopia AF Eritrea

Topical: international relations politics social border conflict civil war decentralisation election emergency ethnic government military opposition regional security
ISSN:: 2633-304X
Citation:: Oxford Analytica (2020), "Ethiopia teeters on the brink of civil war", Expert Briefings.
https://doi.org/10.1108/OXAN-DB257391

Friday, November 6, 2020

These developments threaten to ignite a multi-dimensional civil war pitting Tigrayan against federal and Amhara regional forces.

The conflict will test the cohesion of the military, which was once dominated by Tigrayans but has been undergoing reforms under Abiy.
Abiy is likely to view international intervention as a sign of loss of control and may reject mediation offers.
Amhara forces may try to reclaim ‘historic’ Amhara areas that Tigray allegedly arrogated, potentially displacing many Tigrayans.
Alongside desert locust swarms in parts of the country, including Tigray, the conflict may worsen food security risks.
Elections tentatively rescheduled for May or June 2021 may be postponed again.