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Ethiopia may fail to deliver on transitional justice

Location:

ETHIOPIA

The policy includes some changes from the justice ministry’s initial draft, most significantly the removal of a proposal for a special court to prosecute the most serious crimes…

Ukraine's nuclear dependence on Russia will decline

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UKRAINE

Nuclear power plants (NPPs) account for over 50% of the electricity supply in Ukraine. Kyiv has been seeking to break its dependence on Russia in all spheres of the nuclear supply…

Russian foreign influencer campaigns are evolving

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INT

In recent months, multiple European intelligence services have issued warnings of increased efforts by Russian state organisations to undermine social cohesion in Europe via…

Kenya’s new budget targets significantly lower deficit

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KENYA

After redeeming much of its USD2bn Eurobond in February, the government has effectively dispelled fears of a default. Nevertheless, it remains under pressure to consolidate public…

Recovery of Russian consumption is likely to moderate

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RUSSIA

Strong household demand, now restored to pre-war levels, mitigated the impact on GDP of falling exports last year. The consumer market is profoundly changed, with new brands from…

Ethiopia faces tough negotiations around IMF programme

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ETHIOPIA

Addis Ababa must reach an agreement with the IMF to honour its commitments under its debt-service suspension agreement with official creditors. Thereafter, further talks will be…

Chinese firms will expand presence in South-east Asia

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CHINA/SOUTH-EAST ASIA

South-east Asia maintained its position as the largest recipient (40%) of China’s total Asia-Pacific engagement, which was valued at USD14.8bn, up USD12.4bn from 2022. In recent…

Pyongyang’s Beijing and Moscow ties will be complex

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NORTH KOREA/CHINA/RUSSIA

The PoE has since 2009 reported regularly on North Korea’s violations of UN Security Council (UNSC) sanctions. Beijing and Moscow are resisting an ineffective UN sanctions…

Bosnian Serbs are unlikely to seek independence yet

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BOSNIA-HERCEGOVINA

The move followed changes to the Bosnia-Hercegovina (BiH) election law, aimed at enhancing electoral transparency, imposed by High Representative Christian Schmidt. RS President…

Iran is approaching the limits of its oil expansion

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IRAN

Iran’s increasingly skilled sanctions evasion (aided by less intense US enforcement) has made it the second-largest contributor to higher global oil output over the past year…