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Russia will exploit tension but will not encourage war

Location:

RUSSIA

Russia maintains a delicate balance in the Middle East, preserving a close relationship with Shia-majority Iran and a security presence in neighbouring Syria while seeking…

Ceasefire suspension will drive insecurity in Colombia

Location:

COLOMBIA

Further incidents, including a grenade explosion in Cali and other attacks on municipal buildings and military facilities, have taken place since the ceasefire was suspended…

China’s defence spending will remain stable

Location:

CHINA

Defence spending will account for 1.2% of GDP in 2024, having remained stable at around this figure for at least the past two decades. Nevertheless, outside estimates of China’s…

Political uncertainty fans unrest in Sudan’s periphery

Location:

SUDAN

The violence first erupted in July, but flared again in October and November. Moreover, it is by no means an isolated development, but mirrors new episodes of inter-communal…

US chip controls on China will be an ongoing battle

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CHINA/US

China has limited capacity to substitute for imports in this field over the next few years, so the critical factors will be US ability to enforce the controls and the extent to…

Isolation from West will bring Russia and Iran closer

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RUSSIA/IRAN

The two countries have turned to each other amid increasing isolation from international banking systems, export markets, and foreign resources and technologies. Deepening their…

Chadian government is stepping up repression

Location:

CHAD

Authorities said 50 people had died during the unrest, although OMCT placed that number at 115 due to violent repression. Protesters gathered in Chad’s capital N’Djamena and other…

Russia will cement its presence in Abkhazia

Location:

GEORGIA

The Russian Navy has lost several warships and other vessels during its war with Ukraine; its main bases in Crimea are vulnerable. Seemingly this is prompting a reconfiguration of…

Nigeria separatists may struggle to rebound

Location:

NIGERIA

Kanu was in 2021 forcibly extradited by Nigerian intelligence operatives from Kenya and faces charges on seven terrorism counts. Kanu is currently held in pre-trial detention by…

North Korea Olympic thaw will not address other issues

Location:

NORTH KOREA

Seoul anticipates a North Korean delegation of 400-500 people, including not only athletes but also reporters, observers and officials.