US chip controls on China will be an ongoing battle

Significance

China has limited capacity to substitute for imports in this field over the next few years, so the critical factors will be US ability to enforce the controls and the extent to which other advanced economies copy US measures, willingly or otherwise.

Impacts

• Washington faces challenges in adapting controls to plug holes as they become apparent and enforcing them against black-market trade.
• Washington will keep up pressure on other major players in the semiconductor supply chain to introduce comparable controls targeting China.
• China's competitiveness in many electronics-heavy sectors will suffer, especially in markets where performance is privileged over price.