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Russia will exploit tension but will not encourage war

Location:

RUSSIA

Russia maintains a delicate balance in the Middle East, preserving a close relationship with Shia-majority Iran and a security presence in neighbouring Syria while seeking…

Limits to Russia’s ties with Turkey will persist

Location:

RUSSIA

Energy ties, already deep, have expanded since 2022 as part of a broader reorientation of Russian commerce away from the West. The similarly authoritarian leadership styles of…

Moroccan-Algerian competition will rise in the Sahel

Location:

MOROCCO/ALGERIA

MOROCCO/ALGERIA: Competition will rise in the Sahel

Severity of Israel’s downturn hinges on conflict moves

Location:

ISRAEL

Israel’s war with Hamas is taking a growing toll on the economy mainly due to labour shortages. The economy has recovered quickly from previous short wars, but this conflict…

Riyadh will seek regional de-escalation

Location:

SAUDI ARABIA

SAUDI ARABIA: Riyadh will seek regional de-escalation

Hydrocarbons wealth will entrench Libya divisions

Location:

LIBYA

The NOC-ENI agreement follows on from an earlier memorandum of understanding (MoU) which Turkey signed with the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (GNU) in October. This…

Syria sees an energy deficit despite military advances

Location:

SYRIA

The Syrian army and its allies have driven IS out of most of the region from Homs to the edge of the Euphrates valley, recapturing several gas fields. This has yielded a marginal…

China will focus on Middle East energy, not politics

Location:

MIDDLE EAST/CHINA

A significant proportion of imports come from the Middle East, where security-driven supply risks -- and Saudi Arabia’s production restraint -- are also helping to drive up oil…