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Hydrocarbons wealth will entrench Libya divisions

Friday, February 24, 2023


The NOC-ENI agreement follows on from an earlier memorandum of understanding (MoU) which Turkey signed with the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (GNU) in October. This covered exploration and extraction of offshore gas in the Mediterranean.


  • Competition over energy in the eastern Mediterranean could reignite Turkish-Greek tensions, eased by the earthquake of February 6.
  • The east-based Tripoli government will use actions on illegal immigration to improve its status with European countries.
  • Egypt will intensify support for east-based Libyan political figures as a counterweight to Tripoli.
  • The GNU will build on a shift in Emirati policy over Libya to attract financing to Tripoli-led projects.
  • Energy competition could slow efforts to attract oil companies whose work may also be periodically disrupted should tensions flare.

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