Hydrocarbons wealth will entrench Libya divisions

Significance

The NOC-ENI agreement follows on from an earlier memorandum of understanding (MoU) which Turkey signed with the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (GNU) in October. This covered exploration and extraction of offshore gas in the Mediterranean.

Impacts

• Competition over energy in the eastern Mediterranean could reignite Turkish-Greek tensions, eased by the earthquake of February 6.
• The east-based Tripoli government will use actions on illegal immigration to improve its status with European countries.
• Egypt will intensify support for east-based Libyan political figures as a counterweight to Tripoli.
• The GNU will build on a shift in Emirati policy over Libya to attract financing to Tripoli-led projects.
• Energy competition could slow efforts to attract oil companies whose work may also be periodically disrupted should tensions flare.