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Russia will exploit tension but will not encourage war

Location:

RUSSIA

Russia maintains a delicate balance in the Middle East, preserving a close relationship with Shia-majority Iran and a security presence in neighbouring Syria while seeking…

Iraqi Kurds’ economic trap will drive instability

Location:

IRAQ

The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) emphasised it had sent the federal finance ministry a promised full list of employees on April 21; however, Baghdad sources said…

Armenia will avoid severing ties with Russia

Location:

ARMENIA

Relations with Moscow have become even more strained since the September 2023 fall of Nagorno-Karabakh, compounding the shock caused by Russia failing to protect Armenia from…

Baku will resist a quick peace deal with Armenia

Location:

ARMENIA

The latest round of talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Geneva on March 22 ended without any concrete progress on negotiations over a bilateral peace agreement. The meeting…

Engaging with Afghanistan will get harder for West

Location:

AFGHANISTAN

This was a reference to criticism of Taliban rule by certain international players. While engagement between the emirate and the West remains limited, the Taliban are drawing…

Iraq’s Sunnis and Kurds face a more peripheral future

Location:

IRAQ

Discussions on the future of the US-Iraq security relationship will be followed with intense interest by both Iran-backed Shia forces in Iraq and their increasingly sidelined…

Israel will carefully calibrate its Iran retaliation

Location:

ISRAEL

The assault caused almost no damage after a combined air defence including the United States and other allies intercepted nearly all the projectiles. Nonetheless, it was Iran’s…

Afghanistan’s marginalised groups face increasing woes

Location:

AFGHANISTAN

The Taliban have increasingly fraught relations not only with Shia, most of whom are ethnic Hazaras, but also with other marginalised communities, including Salafis -- a small…

Tehran will prioritise conservative consolidation

Location:

IRAN

Many centrist and reformist candidates have been disqualified or declined to stand. This, together with the poor state of the economy and resentment over money spent abroad on…

Armenia and Azerbaijan will import more arms

Location:

ARMENIA/AZERBAIJAN

France announced in November that it would deliver armoured vehicles to Armenia, prompting protests from Azerbaijan. The news threatens the tentative negotiations taking place…