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Evidence tilts towards Ukraine war likelihood

Location:

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

Western leaders are talking to one another and Moscow in a bid to change Russian President Vladimir Putin's mind -- if he has in fact decided on an attack. If he plans an…

London post-Brexit will retain Balkan security role

Location:

BALKANS/UK

The summit is an opportunity for reinvigorating the Berlin Process which has faded somewhat as the European migration crisis, Brexit and reform priorities put EU enlargement on…

Russia has options other than full invasion of Ukraine

Location:

RUSSIA

This adds little clarity to his intentions on Ukraine. The amassing of Russian forces still leaves ambiguity about the feasibility and desirability of full-scale invasion. US…

Russia will meddle in troubled Balkan waters

Location:

BALKANS

Disturbances in the newest NATO member state stems from religious and political affiliation rather than any doctrinal split, pitting pro-Western Montenegrin nationalists and…

Obdurate Putin will obstruct end to Ukraine war

Location:

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

These comments by one of Russia's less hawkish adversaries reflect pessimism about the chances of identifying a route to conflict resolution. Nonetheless, the first anniversary of…

Ukraine peace talks are intended to help de-escalation

Location:

UKRAINE

Such claims are concerning, as incidents on the front line could give Russia a pretext to send troops into rebel-held eastern Ukraine. President Vladimir Putin said this week that…

Russia will cooperate more with Afghan Taliban

Location:

AFGHANISTAN

Such a move could pave the way for Russia to recognise the emirate formally. No player currently does so, but a handful of countries including Russia are engaging substantially…

Russia will save Assad to be part of Syria's endgame

Location:

RUSSIA

Russia's significant recent reinforcement of the Assad regime with the deployment of combat aircraft around Lattakia.

US intercession may help Russia-Ukraine de-escalation

Location:

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

An emergency NATO-Ukraine meeting the same day condemned Moscow's activities in terms similar to earlier robust statements from NATO members. The Russian military build-up…

Montenegro election affords mandate for pro-EU policy

Location:

MONTENEGRO

The Montenegrin strongman’s comfortable win in the presidential election on April 15.