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Prospects for the Russian economy to end-2023

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PROSPECTS H2 2023

Despite recent economic stabilisation, future growth prospects are severely limited owing to Russia’s international isolation. A prolonged war in Ukraine would threaten the…

Recovery of Russian consumption is likely to moderate

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RUSSIA

Strong household demand, now restored to pre-war levels, mitigated the impact on GDP of falling exports last year. The consumer market is profoundly changed, with new brands from…

Inflation could rise again in Russia in 2023

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RUSSIA

Inflation has subsided owing to base effects. War, sanctions, geopolitical isolation and economic restructuring have already undermined population living standards, with poorer…

Pressure is growing on the ECB to make a rate change

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EU

She repeated her determination to respond through a mix of different instruments ('optionality'), in a conservative manner ('gradualism'), and using as much leeway as her mandate…

Sanctions will increase risks for Russian economy

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RUSSIA

However, although output has grown, a tight labour market and persistent inflation have created new problems. The reorientation of trade away from Europe has resulted in a…

Western Balkan growth is over-dependent on EU

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BALKANS

Western Balkan growth prospects.

Orban will use election to justify vision for Hungary

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HUNGARY

HUNGARY: Orban will use election to justify his vision

Poland, Czechia and Hungary may join euro, but not yet

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EASTERN EUROPE

The Denkov administration that took office in June has set adopting the euro as a top priority, and blames the previous interim government for Bulgaria’s unpreparedness to join…

Russian household consumption is recovering slowly

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RUSSIA

This was the first acceleration after twelve consecutive declines and was driven by an 11% rise in the prices of services. The war in Ukraine has exposed Russia’s consumers to…

High employment and low wages will curb Russian growth

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RUSSIA

In defiance of expectations following the imposition of severe sanctions, the unemployment rate has hovered around 3.2%. Yet rather than a sign of resilience, low unemployment…