Western Balkan growth is over-dependent on EU

Subject

Western Balkan growth prospects.

Significance

The Western Balkan (WB) economy grew at its fastest rate in ten years in 2018, but first-half data suggest a slowdown in most of its component economies for 2019. Although growth will exceed the EU average, the region’s gap with the EU is still wide, making integration more difficult.

Impacts

• High levels of unemployment, especially among the young, will continue to drive the talented and enterprising to emigrate.
• Slow progress in raising standards of living increases the likelihood of social unrest.
• Underemployment of women in several WB economies will waste valuable human capital.