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Libya unity government will probably prolong its term

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LIBYA

The Government of National Accord in Tripoli had handed over power on March 16. The ceremony means Libya now has its first unified government since 2014. The new government has a…

Iran will struggle to maintain its position in Syria

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IRAN

Russia is encouraging a rapprochement between Turkey and Syria that does not explicitly include Iran, a key economic and military backer of the Damascus government. Tehran worries…

Prospects for Iraq to end-2018

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PROSPECTS H2 2018

Prospects for Iraq to end-2018.

Yemen’s divided south faces security and economic woes

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YEMEN

The STC and the internationally recognised government of President Abd Rabbu Mansur Hadi established an uneasy power-sharing cabinet in December 2020. This enabled them to boost…

Libyans are preparing for new phase of conflict

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LIBYA

The Cairo talks potentially represent the last chance for a deal between eastern and western factions, and their respective foreign backers. In late June, the current roadmaps…

Turkish-Emirati easing will miss full rapprochement

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TURKEY/UAE

This was the culmination of months of backchannel talks between two of the Middle East’s bitterest rivals. It is intended to help reduce bilateral tensions and facilitate further…

Iraq's militias will move to consolidate power

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IRAQ

The militias have targeted Israel but largely avoided targeting US bases, for fear of Washington's retaliation and to reduce tensions with their own government. The attacks on…

Iraq’s upcoming government will have a limited mandate

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IRAQ

He promised the protesters -- who reject him as a member of the ruling establishment -- wholesale reforms, a say in the new cabinet and an end to the security crackdown. This came…

Prospects for Iran in 2019

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PROSPECTS 2019

Prospects for Iran in 2019.

Syria's ruler will seek to ride out economic protests

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SYRIA

The demonstrations were triggered by Assad’s mid-August announcement of big fuel price increases, only partly mitigated by rises in salaries and pensions. However, they have been…