Libyans are preparing for new phase of conflict

Significance

The Cairo talks potentially represent the last chance for a deal between eastern and western factions, and their respective foreign backers. In late June, the current roadmaps will expire, offering the prospect of a political re-set. Both sides view this as an opportunity to advance their control.

Impacts

• Libya’s oil exports will continue to be a bargaining chip in the political competition.
• Oil closures and blocks on releasing proceeds from sales will help prolong Europe’s energy crisis.
• If the UN mediation fails, the UN will likely lose relevance and will be overtaken by bilateral initiatives and the plans of Libyan actors.