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Libyans are preparing for new phase of conflict

Wednesday, June 1, 2022

Significance

The Cairo talks potentially represent the last chance for a deal between eastern and western factions, and their respective foreign backers. In late June, the current roadmaps will expire, offering the prospect of a political re-set. Both sides view this as an opportunity to advance their control.

Impacts

  • Libya’s oil exports will continue to be a bargaining chip in the political competition.
  • Oil closures and blocks on releasing proceeds from sales will help prolong Europe’s energy crisis.
  • If the UN mediation fails, the UN will likely lose relevance and will be overtaken by bilateral initiatives and the plans of Libyan actors.

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