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EU fiscal reforms will reinforce regional divergence

Location:

EU

Though parameters have changed and national starting positions are recognised more, the reforms are not extensive. Debt and deficit targets remain. Indebted countries, principally…

Italy's rejection of ESM reforms will continue

Location:

EU/ITALY

Reforms to the ESM, which is the EU’s main bailout fund, were agreed by member states in 2021 but implementation has been halted by Italian opposition. The vote exposed divisions…

Post-poll turmoil may worsen Pakistan’s economic woes

Location:

PAKISTAN

The elections, resulting in a fractured mandate and marred by allegations of rigging, have increased polarisation. Separately, Pakistan’s nine-month, roughly USD3bn Stand-By…

Prospects for East Africa and the Great Lakes in 2024

Location:

PROSPECTS 2024

Although the challenges each country faces differ markedly, all are struggling to address the legacies of old conflicts that threaten to perpetuate new ones.

Pakistan faces long struggle to strengthen economy

Location:

PAKISTAN

The staff-level agreement on the package was announced on June 29, the day before an Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement which Pakistan had with the IMF expired with around…

Prospects for South Africa to end-2023

Location:

PROSPECTS H2 2023

The adverse conditions that drove the rand to record lows in the second quarter of 2023 will likely persist through the remainder of the year, despite 0.4% growth in the first…

Outlook is bright for key leftist leader in Sri Lanka

Location:

SRI LANKA

According to the constitution, the poll must take place in September-October. The JVP was formed as a Marxist-Leninist party. Recent opinion polling suggests Dissanayake would be…

Cambodia’s Hun Manet will prioritise economy

Location:

CAMBODIA

The Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) -- led by former premier Hun Sen, Hun Manet’s father -- won 120 out of 125 seats in the National Assembly, the lower house, in last July’s…

Uzbek president’s problems will mount in long term

Location:

UZBEKISTAN

Constitutional change could keep him in power until 2037, providing an opportunity to transform Uzbekistan’s socio-economic conditions. However, significant domestic and foreign…

Arevalo will steer gradual improvements in Guatemala

Location:

GUATEMALA

Arevalo’s victory marks a shift in Guatemalan politics. After years of democratic backsliding, Arevalo promises a slow, partial recovery of transparency and the rule of law. His…