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1 – 10 of over 2000South-east Asia maintained its position as the largest recipient (40%) of China’s total Asia-Pacific engagement, which was valued at USD14.8bn, up USD12.4bn from 2022. In recent…
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB286688
ISSN: 2633-304X
Keywords
Geographic
Topical
South-east Asia is a key theatre in which Chinese-US strategic rivalry plays out. Beijing is counting on regional defence diplomacy to help it push back against the United States…
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB281671
ISSN: 2633-304X
Keywords
Geographic
Topical
Besides a leaders’ plenary and retreat, there were events linked to four thematic tracks: business; climate and clean energy; maritime cooperation; and emerging leaders…
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB285789
ISSN: 2633-304X
Keywords
Geographic
Topical
However, as the major technology producers attempt to diversify and reconfigure their supply chains -- particularly to redirect investment away from China -- interest in…
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB279928
ISSN: 2633-304X
Keywords
Geographic
Topical
TikTok’s new campaign will piggyback on the region’s robust appetite for social media, and is intended to help offset revenue the company will likely lose due to increasing…
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB280237
ISSN: 2633-304X
Keywords
Geographic
Topical
The Chinese telecoms company Huawei, which is heavily sanctioned by the United States, has announced that it will bid for contracts under the tender. The EU and the United States…
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB279598
ISSN: 2633-304X
Keywords
Geographic
Topical
Regional governments have been aware of this trend since 2021, but efforts to counter it have been episodic and inadequate.
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB282606
ISSN: 2633-304X
Keywords
Geographic
Topical
Samhita Vemuri and Ziaul Haque Munim
While previous studies focused mainly on East Asia to Europe or United States trade routes, in recent years, trade among South-East Asian countries has increased notably. The…
Abstract
Purpose
While previous studies focused mainly on East Asia to Europe or United States trade routes, in recent years, trade among South-East Asian countries has increased notably. The price of transporting a container is not fixed and can fluctuate heavily over the course of a week. Besides, extant literature only identified seasonality patterns in the container freight market, but did not explore route-varying seasonality patterns. Hence, this study analyses container freight seasonality patterns of the six South-East Asian routes of the South-East Asian Freight Index (SEAFI) and the index itself and forecasts them.
Design/methodology/approach
Data of the composite SEAFI and six routes are collected from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange (SSE) including 167 weekly observations from 2016 to 2019. The SEAFI and individual route data reflect spot rates from the Shanghai Port to South-East Asia base ports. The authors analyse seasonality patterns using polar plots. For forecasting, the study utilize two univariate models, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and seasonal autoregressive neural network (SNNAR). For both models, the authors compare forecasting results of original level and log-transformed data.
Findings
This study finds that the seasonality patterns of the six South-East Asian container trade routes are identical in an overall but exhibits unique characteristics. ARIMA models perform better than SNNAR models for one-week ahead test-sample forecasting. The SNNAR models offer better performance for 4-week ahead forecasting for two selected routes only.
Practical implications
Major industry players such as shipping lines, shippers, ship-owners and others should take into account the route-level seasonality patterns in their decision-making. Forecast analysts can consider using the original level data without log transformation in their analysis. The authors suggest using ARIMA models in one-step and four-step ahead forecasting for majority of the routes. The SNNAR models are recommended for multi-step forecasting for Shanghai to Vietnam and Shanghai to Thailand routes only.
Originality/value
This study analyses a new shipping index, that is, the SEAFI and its underlying six routes. The authors analyze the seasonality pattern of container freight rate data using polar plot and perform forecasting using ARIMA and SNNAR models. Moreover, the authors experiment forecasting performance of log-transformed and non-transformed series.
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A key finding is that 50.5% of respondents would pick China if forced to take sides in US-Chinese rivalry, up from 38.9% in 2023. China continues to be regarded as the most…
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB286312
ISSN: 2633-304X
Keywords
Geographic
Topical
SOUTH-EAST ASIA: Maritime tensions keep ticking up