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Georgia risks becoming Russian sanctions-evasion haven

Location:

GEORGIA/RUSSIA

Tbilisi has authorised flights by two smaller Russian airlines, exacerbating fears of the potential for sanctions evasion. That follows the easing of Russia’s visa regime for…

Sanctions will increase risks for Russian economy

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RUSSIA

However, although output has grown, a tight labour market and persistent inflation have created new problems. The reorientation of trade away from Europe has resulted in a…

Smaller trade surplus will keep ruble low this year

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RUSSIA

Pronounced ruble depreciation this year attests to the efficacy of sanctions in disrupting Russia’s external trade. The weaker ruble has already provoked a spike in household…

Politics will drive growth in trade de-dollarisation

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INTERNATIONAL

A move away from the US dollar is gaining momentum, driven by the West’s use of economic sanctions, high levels of sovereign debt and a desire to de-link monetary policy from the…

Unity on Ukraine is at risk in EU’s eastern members

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EU

Most eastern EU societies continue to support Ukraine in its fight for independence, back Western sanctions, the EU and NATO, and view Russia as a security threat, according to a…

China’s exports will recover but trade sanctions loom

Location:

CHINA

Chinese exports grew by 7.1% year-on-year in US dollar terms, while imports expanded by 3.5%. The trade gap narrowed to USD39.7bn in February. Export growth was buoyed by rapid…

War in Ukraine creates opportunities for Central Asia

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CENTRAL ASIA

The war in Ukraine has changed the dynamics of interaction between Russia and the Central Asian countries, which have been traditionally a source of migrant labour. Despite rising…

Syria’s mild economic recovery faces major constraints

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SYRIA

The economy is not showing serious ill effects from the overspill of the conflict in Gaza or recent aid cuts. The government may even have derived some additional financial…

Politics will increase Iran’s economic instability

Location:

IRAN

IRAN: Politics will increase economic instability

Prospects for the Russian economy to end-2023

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PROSPECTS H2 2023

Despite recent economic stabilisation, future growth prospects are severely limited owing to Russia’s international isolation. A prolonged war in Ukraine would threaten the…