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Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Karabakh is settled

Location:

ARMENIA/AZERBAIJAN

The region’s Armenian majority population has fled; displaced Azerbaijanis have returned to Karabakh and formerly occupied surrounding districts. Russia refused to support its…

Baku will resist a quick peace deal with Armenia

Location:

ARMENIA

The latest round of talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Geneva on March 22 ended without any concrete progress on negotiations over a bilateral peace agreement. The meeting…

The EU will encounter obstacles in the South Caucasus

Location:

CAUCASUS

This follows years of the region being regarded as of peripheral interest to Brussels. Nonetheless, relations have not always been smooth.

Turkey will claim larger share of Balkan gas markets

Location:

BULGARIA/TURKEY/BALKANS

Turkish state-owned utility BOTAS has a supply contract with Bulgargaz which also includes access to the Bulgarian grid. It is in position to resell Russian gas to customers in…

CIS economic group will help Russia weather sanctions

Location:

CIS

Chinese President Xi Jinping addressed the opening ceremony by video link, hailing the “irresistible” trend towards multipolarity and economic globalisation. The forum discussed…

South-eastern Europe will focus on cross-border links

Location:

GREECE/BULGARIA/ROMANIA

The EU seeks to improve connectivity among its members and partners in South-eastern Europe, with added impetus since the invasion of Ukraine. Improved cross-border connections…

Russia’s influence in Central Asia will wane

Location:

CENTRAL ASIA

During his meeting with his Kazakh counterpart Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in Astana, Putin called the two countries “not just allies, but very close allies”. A month earlier, Putin had…

Limits to Russia’s ties with Turkey will persist

Location:

RUSSIA

Energy ties, already deep, have expanded since 2022 as part of a broader reorientation of Russian commerce away from the West. The similarly authoritarian leadership styles of…

The EU’s phase-out of Russian gas is not guaranteed

Location:

EU

This is the trajectory followed by the majority of member states. However, blockages remain in east-central Europe, where Turkey could play a role in maintaining direct or…

Kazakhstan will struggle to boost oil output

Location:

KAZAKHSTAN

Astana's aspirations to reach 2 million b/d have been set back by difficulties in raising output at major fields. Government efforts to diversify the economy away from…