Kazakhstan will struggle to boost oil output

Significance

Astana's aspirations to reach 2 million b/d have been set back by difficulties in raising output at major fields. Government efforts to diversify the economy away from hydrocarbons have only modestly reduced oil's importance in GDP and, crucially, in government revenue.

Impacts

• Despite considerable domestic oil production, Kazakhstan will continue to experience deficits of petrol and other refined oil products.
• The national oil fund is unlikely to reach USD100bn by 2030, as targeted by Tokayev in December 2022.
• Dependence on European and Turkish customers gives Russia considerable leverage over Kazakhstan, given existing infrastructure.