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OPEC elasticity offsets supply risks and uneven demand

Location:

INTERNATIONAL

Crude inventories have fallen mildly in the second half of 2021, but the modest demand recovery obliges producers to practise restraint. Quota compliance is a concern for OPEC+…

South China Sea dispute will worsen markedly

Location:

CHINA

The fallout from the COVID-19 crisis has worsened relations between Washington and Beijing and increased tensions in the disputed waters. China is taking advantage of the pandemic…

Saudi-Russian oil market leverage adapts to US actions

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RUSSIA/OPEC

US energy policy has pushed Saudi Arabia and Russia closer together, leading to a level of cooperation inconceivable four years ago. Their leadership and coordination on such key…

Ukraine will transit but not buy Russian gas

Location:

UKRAINE/RUSSIA

Multiple Russian-Ukrainian gas disputes.

WTO meeting fails to advance on agriculture

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LATIN AMERICA/INT

Limiting the trade-distorting effects of domestic farm programmes has been a major objective in trade talks for 30 years. Participants at the WTO conference aimed to focus yet…

Angola's renewed China dependence will bring more pain

Location:

ANGOLA

However, China’s insistence on negotiating debt relief bilaterally and on a loan-by-loan basis will delay efforts to reschedule borrowing, jeopardising Angola’s debt…

Ukraine will push Russia for lower gas price

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UKRAINE

Ukraine-Russia gas dispute.

Bonn meetings will be key in global climate deal

Location:

INTERNATIONAL

The most important climate summit since the 1997 Kyoto gathering will open in Paris at end-November, with the goal of producing the first universal binding climate treaty ever…

French-German tensions reflect strategic divergences

Location:

FRANCE/GERMANY

Faced with the shocks of the war in Ukraine, Berlin is acting unilaterally to fix its problems while seeking greater alignment with northern and eastern EU members, at the expense…

Iran can quickly hike oil exports as politics allow

Location:

IRAN

Tehran’s more sophisticated sanctions avoidance tactics and greater willingness to test Washington’s enforcement have substantially boosted exports from 2019 lows. The slow…