South China Sea dispute will worsen markedly

Significance

The fallout from the COVID-19 crisis has worsened relations between Washington and Beijing and increased tensions in the disputed waters. China is taking advantage of the pandemic by pressing its maritime claims.

Impacts

• Heightened tensions in the South China Sea will have little effect on commercial shipping.
• Fish stocks in the disputed waters will continue to fall as the ongoing dispute precludes agreement on regionwide fisheries management.
• The EU, Japan, India and Australia will express concern about the situation in the South China Sea but not intervene directly.