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North-west Syria’s top rebel faction will keep control

Location:

SYRIA

The official, Abu Ahmed Zakour, was reportedly associated with Iraqi-born former HTS leading figure Abu Mariya al-Qahtani, who was arrested in August amid ‘spying’ accusations…

Growing refugee debate ups pressure on Erdogan

Location:

TURKEY

Erdogan is partly motivated by domestic alarm at the prospect of more Afghan refugees, which has heightened discontent over his policies regarding migration and the large, mainly…

Rivals will use tribes to destabilise Syria’s Raqqa

Location:

SYRIA

Some 80% of the city, which was the de facto capital of Islamic State (IS) until its capture by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), was ruined in fighting and…

Lebanon will struggle to turn loans into prosperity

Location:

LEBANON

Lebanon won aid pledges exceeding eleven billion dollars on April 6 during a conference in Paris, named CEDRE, that aimed to rally international support for a massive investment…

Jordanian tribal frustrations will be kept in check

Location:

JORDAN

Economic frustrations and political corruption are eroding tribal support for the ruling monarchy. Previously, tribes were considered the bedrock of Hashemite rule. Importantly…

COVID-19 response may disrupt power balances in Iran

Location:

IRAN

The Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC), together with its Basij militia, has partly restored its reputation for effective action. At the same time, new local civil society…

Idlib will weaken but not break Turkish-Russian ties

Location:

TURKEY

Tensions have risen since Syrian government shelling killed seven Turkish soldiers and a civilian contractor in north-western Syria on February 3. Although President Recep Tayyip…

Yemen's tribes will gain power from Huthi conflict

Location:

YEMEN

Yemen's tribes have played a powerful role in the country's post-2011 uprising conflicts. Their withdrawal of support from former President Ali Abdallah Saleh fuelled the protests…

Public distrust in Jordan’s government will increase

Location:

JORDAN

The government’s determination to hold elections on time despite popular calls for postponement amid a pandemic resurgence sparked boycott campaigns. Despite safety measures such…

Syria reconstruction prospects may deteriorate further

Location:

SYRIA

In fact, ten years after that conflict started, with President Bashar al-Assad still in control of two-thirds of the country, no foreign state shows any sign of making a major…