Idlib will weaken but not break Turkish-Russian ties

Significance

Tensions have risen since Syrian government shelling killed seven Turkish soldiers and a civilian contractor in north-western Syria on February 3. Although President Recep Tayyip Erdogan blames Damascus for the deaths, Russian-Turkish relations have sunk to their lowest point since 2016. Turkey is threatening to use force against Syrian troops, Russia’s close allies, if necessary.

Impacts

• Erdogan will resume dialogue with the United States, against opposition from his enemies in Washington.
• Turkey’s internal financial difficulties will grow, and foreign investors will continue to leave.
• Erdogan will clamp down further on the opposition.