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The EU will encounter obstacles in the South Caucasus

Location:

CAUCASUS

This follows years of the region being regarded as of peripheral interest to Brussels. Nonetheless, relations have not always been smooth.

Limits to Russia’s ties with Turkey will persist

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RUSSIA

Energy ties, already deep, have expanded since 2022 as part of a broader reorientation of Russian commerce away from the West. The similarly authoritarian leadership styles of…

Russian energy influence in Moldova will decline

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MOLDOVA

The decision to make Vestmodtransgaz the transmission system operator (TSO) will facilitate the overhaul of national gas utility MoldovaGaz. It will also deprive Russia of…

Russia's budget revenue forecast may prove optimistic

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RUSSIA

The Ministry of Finance is seeking new ways to boost federal revenues to fund rising military expenditure, as well as any pledges made during the forthcoming presidential election…

CIS economic group will help Russia weather sanctions

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CIS

Chinese President Xi Jinping addressed the opening ceremony by video link, hailing the “irresistible” trend towards multipolarity and economic globalisation. The forum discussed…

Split Bulgarian parliament would suit ambitious Radev

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BULGARIA

It is the fourth election since April 2021. President Rumen Radev -- the real power behind Prime Minister Galab Donev's caretaker government -- is widely suspected of wishing to…

Vietnam will rethink its relations with Russia

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VIETNAM

Vietnam is Russia’s closest partner in South-east Asia and has refused to criticise Moscow over the Ukraine war. Between 2000 and 2022, Russia accounted for more than 80% of…

War in Ukraine will deepen poverty in Central Europe

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EASTERN EUROPE

Central-East European (CEE) economies grow faster than most in good times but are more vulnerable in bad times, lacking the political and financial capital and competences to…

Moldova's separatist region in no rush for conflict

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MOLDOVA

The war in Ukraine has increased concerns about Moscow's intentions towards the separatist region of Transnistria, perhaps an overland offensive if Odessa is captured. Despite…

War in Ukraine will increase Turkey’s isolation

Location:

TURKEY

Simultaneous presidential and parliamentary elections are due by mid-2023 at the latest. Opinion polls suggest that support for Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party are…