Russian energy influence in Moldova will decline

Significance

The decision to make Vestmodtransgaz the transmission system operator (TSO) will facilitate the overhaul of national gas utility MoldovaGaz. It will also deprive Russia of leverage over the Moldovan economy and politics.

Impacts

• Russia’s capacity to fund political allies through MoldovaGaz will decline.
• Gazprom may seek international arbitration over the debt dispute with Moldova.
• Gazprom may suspend its five-year supply contract with Moldova, leaving the country dependent on gas imports from the EU.