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Euro-area activity will slow sharply or even contract

Location:

EU

The euro-area is highly exposed to the fallout from the Ukraine war, and higher commodity prices for a longer period will squeeze the disposable incomes of households and firms…

War threatens lasting risks for Germany’s economy

Location:

GERMANY

The impact of the war in Ukraine, and Western sanctions on Russia, is already harming the economy through higher energy and consumer prices plus trade disruption. The German…

Prospects for the euro-area economy to end-2022

Location:

PROSPECTS H2 2022

Prospects for the euro-area economy to end-2022.

2023 will test East European V4 economies’ resilience

Location:

EASTERN EUROPE

Economic hardship may be increasing support for populism and far-right politics, especially in the more vulnerable Slovakia and Hungary. Proximity to the war, including spending…

UK government has space for fiscal loosening

Location:

UNITED KINGDOM

The UK economy is not as directly exposed to the conflict as other European countries, but economic weakness in the EU will have knock-on effects for the United Kingdom. The…

Western Balkan growth is over-dependent on EU

Location:

BALKANS

Western Balkan growth prospects.

Germany’s inflation shows no signs of slowing

Location:

GERMANY

Soaring inflation coincides with declining consumer and business confidence. Germany’s main economic forecasters expect inflation to continue in double digits over the coming…

Pre-election spending may prop up Polish economy

Location:

POLAND

The statistical office’s provisional estimate surpassed expectations and confirmed that Poland’s diversified economy, backed by government measures, had weathered the supply…

Pressure is growing on the ECB to make a rate change

Location:

EU

She repeated her determination to respond through a mix of different instruments ('optionality'), in a conservative manner ('gradualism'), and using as much leeway as her mandate…