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The Gaza war will worsen Jordan’s long-term debt risk

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JORDAN

He was speaking at the signing ceremony for the first USD845mn grant bolstering the national budget, under a new agreement signed this year. The Gaza war has exacerbated concerns…

Jordan’s debt levels are sustainable for the present

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JORDAN

Despite a series of IMF programmes since 1989, public sector debt levels have climbed to worrying heights, driven by deficits on both fiscal and current account accounts. Jordan’s…

Beirut will need IMF support, despite political costs

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LEBANON

This followed the government’s decision to default, for the first time ever, on bonds maturing on March 9. There is a mounting controversy over whether to seek financial support…

Oman and Bahrain are the most vulnerable Gulf states

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BAHRAIN/OMAN

Oman and Bahrain, already struggling with rising public debt levels and high fiscal deficits, are in the most exposed medium-term position.

Sanctions will reinforce Iran’s money supply woes

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IRAN

Inflation has to a great extent been driven by a depreciation of the rial following Washington’s decision to reimpose sanctions, yet deep structural flaws in the banking sector…

Chad elections will be too late to challenge president

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CHAD

Prospects for authoritarianism in Chad.

Lebanon’s economy has further to fall

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LEBANON

The central bank has struggled to address a deep financial crisis that, exacerbated by COVID-19, has impoverished a whole population. In addition to complex exchange controls, it…

Military will obstruct economic reforms in Egypt

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EGYPT

These include publishing a strategy document on changing the state's role in the economy and placing the assets of five companies, two of them owned by the military, with the…

Prospects for North Africa in 2022

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PROSPECTS 2022

Domestic politics will be particularly unsettled in Tunisia and Libya. International dynamics are set to dominate the outlook for Egypt, especially on human rights and the Grand…

Prospects for Turkey to end-2020

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PROSPECTS H2 2020

Prospects for Turkey to end-2020.