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Ukraine war will shift Black Sea naval balance

Location:

UKRAINE

The strike, followed by attacks against the BSF headquarters on September 22-23, seriously degraded Russian naval power to the advantage of Ukraine and NATO.

Erdogan’s ambitions will strain EU ties further

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TURKEY/FRANCE

Rising tensions over the conflict in Libya have produced a severe crisis in French-Turkish ties and threaten to exacerbate strains in Ankara’s relations with the EU. By placing…

Russia’s ties with Iran will grow stronger

Location:

RUSSIA

War, sanctions and a mutual desire to overturn US-led regional security orders have pushed Moscow and Tehran closer together. Moscow desires to turn what has historically been a…

Astana partnership over Syria can survive tests

Location:

SYRIA

Idlib is the location of a nominal de-escalation zone brokered by Russia and Turkey last September. Those countries, along with Iran, held a summit in the Kazakh capital…

A new accommodation over Syria’s Idlib is probable

Location:

SYRIA

Last week, a second major rebel counterattack cut the road between Suqaylabiyah and Muhradah, two strongholds of paramilitaries supportive of President Bashar al-Assad. Rebels’…

Saudi Arabia's foreign policy will avoid controversy

Location:

SAUDI ARABIA

Saudi Arabia will use the summit to underline its regional leadership, with a foreign policy posture that has been increasingly less confrontational since 2020. This reflects the…

Iran will acquire more Russian weaponry

Location:

IRAN

Sources close to the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) said a photograph purporting to show one in the skies above Tehran had been faked. Iran has supplied unmanned aerial…

Jordan will seek Syrian regime help on border security

Location:

SYRIA/JORDAN

Jordan's Syria policy.

Turkish-Russian political tensions will be sustained

Location:

TURKEY/RUSSIA

The meeting could have tried to ease tensions after Turkey shot down a Russian Su-24 close to the Turkish-Syrian border. Putin insisted Ankara first apologise for the incident…

Views of US Mideast disengagement will drive reality

Location:

MIDDLE EAST/US

This came amid a wave of rapprochements and a new emphasis on multipolarity across the region. US partners, including the Gulf states, Israel and Egypt, have signalled they do not…