Views of US Mideast disengagement will drive reality

Significance

This came amid a wave of rapprochements and a new emphasis on multipolarity across the region. US partners, including the Gulf states, Israel and Egypt, have signalled they do not share a worldview of strategic rivalry with China and Russia.

Impacts

• Perceptions of US disengagement are deeply held across much of the Middle East and will prove difficult to change.
• Although China did not create the space for regional rapprochement, it will seek to maximise the diplomatic credit.
• Developments on Russia-Ukraine will partly determine the availability of bandwidth for Middle East issues.