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UK economy faces a shallow yet prolonged downturn

Location:

UNITED KINGDOM

The IMF forecast assumes UK interest rates peak at 6.0% (from 5.25% currently), and linger at 4.0-4.25% through to 2028. The IMF’s forecasts are similar to those of the Bank of…

Fewer Indians will migrate for work

Location:

INDIA

These include internal migrants, who seek work in parts of the country beyond their hometowns and villages, and expatriate nationals, who are employed abroad. The restrictions on…

The impact of Brexit on UK-EU trade is growing

Location:

UK/EU

UK imports from the EU were consistently weak throughout 2021 and were outperformed by imports from non-EU countries, while exports to EU and non-EU countries were at around the…

Prospects for the global economy in H2 2023

Location:

PROSPECTS H2 2023

Labour and housing markets are slowing very gradually, but the strength of services is preventing a faster fall in headline inflation. The pass-through effects of interest-rate…

Prospects for manufacturing in 2016

Location:

PROSPECTS 2016

Prospects for manufacturing in 2016.

COVID-induced drivers of trade outpacing GDP may stick

Location:

INTERNATIONAL

It sees goods trade declining by 9.2% in 2020, with services trade falling by a steeper 23% from peak to trough, exacerbated by travel restrictions. The decline in domestic…

UK economy should recover fully by end of 2021

Location:

UNITED KINGDOM

The revised forecast reflects the economy’s resilience to the re-imposition of COVID-19 restrictions during January and April this year. The UK economy is expected to return to…

Global trade and shipping will long remain subdued

Location:

INTERNATIONAL

Trends in global trade and shipping.

Near-term US outlook is solid, but clouds are building

Location:

UNITED STATES

Core personal consumption expenditure inflation is 4.7% year-on-year, above the 2.0% target. The economy is holding up, with the OECD now forecasting GDP growth of 1.5%, up from…

Malaysia-Vietnam TPP deal is likely by year-end

Location:

MALAYSIA/VIETNAM

Outlook for the Trans-Pacific Partnership in South-east Asia.