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Malaysia-Vietnam TPP deal is likely by year-end

Thursday, July 23, 2015

Subject

Outlook for the Trans-Pacific Partnership in South-east Asia.

Significance

Chief negotiators for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal will meet July 24 to 27 while trade ministers convene July 28 to 31. US President Barack Obama's administration hopes to submit the final TPP agreement to Congress before end-2015. However, domestic and foreign political dynamics could slow that schedule. The White House will push for congressional approval and a formal TPP launch before Obama leaves office in January 2017, with the deal including South-east Asian members Brunei, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam.

Impacts

  • Malaysia's services and Vietnam's apparel/textiles sectors would gain under the TPP.
  • Hanoi's TPP entry would strain its relationship with Beijing.
  • The TPP could bolster Vietnamese factory-level trade unionism.
  • Kuala Lumpur will need to manage domestic disaffection over the TPP carefully.
  • Brunei and Singapore are unlikely to find difficulty ratifying the TPP.

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