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Prospects for Iran to end-2020

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PROSPECTS H2 2020

Politicians will increasingly look to presidential polls due in 2021, further weakening the incumbent. The external environment remains largely unfavourable.

Prospects for US foreign policy in 2016

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PROSPECTS 2016

Prospects for US foreign policy in 2016.

Iraq’s Sunnis and Kurds face a more peripheral future

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IRAQ

Discussions on the future of the US-Iraq security relationship will be followed with intense interest by both Iran-backed Shia forces in Iraq and their increasingly sidelined…

Iraq’s upcoming government will have a limited mandate

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IRAQ

He promised the protesters -- who reject him as a member of the ruling establishment -- wholesale reforms, a say in the new cabinet and an end to the security crackdown. This came…

Prospects for Russian foreign policy in 2018

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PROSPECTS 2018

Prospects for Russian foreign policy in 2018.

Iraqi Kurds’ economic trap will drive instability

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IRAQ

The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) emphasised it had sent the federal finance ministry a promised full list of employees on April 21; however, Baghdad sources said…

Prospects for Iran in 2020

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PROSPECTS 2020

Prospects for Iran in 2020.

US-Iran fight in Iraq may see new strikes and election

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IRAQ

The United States on December 29 launched airstrikes on five bases maintained by Iran-backed militia Kata’ib Hezbollah, in retaliation for a December 28 rocket attack that killed…

Iraqi government formation could be delayed until 2023

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IRAQ

The support of two-thirds of the 329 MPs is needed to back a new government. However, neither of the two main factions can garner this level of support individually, resulting in…

Tehran will prioritise conservative consolidation

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IRAN

Many centrist and reformist candidates have been disqualified or declined to stand. This, together with the poor state of the economy and resentment over money spent abroad on…