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Brazil fiscal and welfare spending demands will clash

Location:

BRAZIL

The economy is at a crossroads: high unemployment and increasing poverty are generating pressures for greater income transfers, but the delicate fiscal position is generating…

Slower Polish growth may upset 2019 budget targets

Location:

POLAND

With a two-year electoral cycle getting under way, the PiS government may be tempted to increase social spending. The stronger-than-expected economic outturn in the first half of…

Risks will outweigh recovery chances in Eastern Europe

Location:

EASTERN EUROPE

The economic environment has been dictated by Russia’s war in Ukraine and its market and policy implications. Next year, the prospects for the V4 economies are moderately upbeat…

Brazil voter priorities may turn against Bolsonaro

Location:

BRAZIL

The Brazilian economy has been negatively impacted by external shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic and supply-chain constraints, as well as by poor domestic performance…

Economic success will elude Macri in Argentina

Location:

ARGENTINA

The 2018 currency crisis left the economy in one of the deepest downturns of the last decade, repeating the cyclical pattern in place since 2011 of one year of growth followed by…

Chile economic outlook will be challenging this year

Location:

CHILE

However, it now anticipates that the contraction will be 1.0%, down from a previous forecast of 1.5%. This is in line with recent Chilean Central Bank forecasts of a…

Inflation 'solution' should help avoid Brazil default

Location:

BRAZIL

Days before this announcement, the government asked Congress to approve a primary deficit of up to 96.65 billion reais (some 1.5% of GDP) for this year. The sharp deterioration in…

Government should pass referendum test in Uruguay

Location:

URUGUAY

President Luis Lacalle Pou’s government has strong public support thanks to a tepid economic recovery and improvements in security, and despite a new wave of COVID-19 cases…

Economic outlook remains weak in Jamaica and Trinidad

Location:

JAMAICA/TRINIDAD

Inflation and interest rates are up, although unemployment and poverty levels remain relatively low. More generally, both countries are being challenged by rising rates of violent…

Loose New Zealand monetary policy may overheat housing

Location:

NEW ZEALAND

New Zealand registered 3.6% year-on-year real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2016, one of the highest among developed economies. This reflects strong domestic and trading…