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Armenia-Azerbaijan arms race undercuts peace prospects

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ARMENIA/AZERBAIJAN

As low-intensity fighting continues, neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan is ready to make concessions to facilitate a settlement determining whether Karabakh gains independence or…

Russia and Turkey will avoid igniting Karabakh war

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CAUCASUS

Implications of a serious bout of fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Iran's military will keep asymmetric advantage in Gulf

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IRAN

With geopolitical tensions in the Gulf rising as a result of Saudi and Iranian involvement in Syria and Yemen, the risk of military escalation in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz…

US action against jihadists rests on politics, not law

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UNITED STATES

Senate Republicans have reopened the legal debate over the power of AUMFs and the ability of presidents to send forces anywhere at any time unilaterally. The debate has…

Drones will strengthen China's military

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CHINA

They are increasingly deployed by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and already used in armed conflicts by foreign militaries. Drones linked to artificial intelligence (AI) are a…

A solution to the Western Sahara conflict is elusive

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WESTERN SAHARA

The UN and the United States are trying to push for a return to the negotiating table, likely the focus of separate visits by UN and US officials to the region in early September.

Israel's economic recovery will remain restrained

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ISRAEL

The war in Gaza, which began in October 2023, was initially expected to wind down within a few months, enabling economic activity to return to normal. Instead, the fighting has…

Seoul’s new assertiveness recasts Korean missile race

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KOREAS

On September 15, it launched two ballistic missiles from a train for the first time. Hours later, South Korea carried out its first official test of a submarine-launched ballistic…

North Korea’s missiles are a double defeat for allies

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NORTH KOREA

They included new models which can penetrate missile defence systems. Despite this, three UN Security Council (UNSC) meetings failed to agree on the usual condemnatory…

Yemen's Huthis will signal resilience

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YEMEN

This appears to be the first Huthi response to the January 12 US and UK strikes on northern Yemen. On January 13, US President Joe Biden said Washington had delivered a message…