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Salvadoran opposition sets sights on return to power

Location:

EL SALVADOR

This is bad news for the ruling Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front (FMLN), which has been losing support thanks to El Salvador’s weak security situation and widespread…

Bet on Canada's spending poses risks for Trudeau

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CANADA

It includes large federal stimulus spending to spur economic growth and to alleviate the worst impacts of the collapse in global commodity prices, particularly oil. The budget…

Prospects for Brazil in 2022

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PROSPECTS 2022

Former centre-left President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva starts the race as the favourite, while a crowded centre-right field will spend months trying, and likely failing, to unify…

Rapid recovery will prove elusive in Argentina

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ARGENTINA

The primary surplus (0.6% of GDP) was driven by a 35% real fall in primary spending, which offset a recession-induced 4.5% drop in revenues. Month-on-month inflation has also…

Early Argentine economic successes are unsustainable

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ARGENTINA

The government has posted the first fiscal surplus in years, inflation has declined and foreign currency reserves have risen from USD21.0bn in mid-December to USD28.5bn. However…

Prospects for Argentina in 2024

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PROSPECTS 2024

Bond markets have responded positively to Milei’s victory, followed by the announcement that he would re-privatise state oil company YPF and other companies, but domestic exchange…

Post-pandemic recovery will be protracted in Peru

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PERU

Peru’s previously buoyant economy has been badly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, contracting by around 13.38% in the first ten months of this year. Investment has been hit, as…

Brazil pension reform will tackle deficit, not growth

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BRAZIL

The government estimates that the reform will save 914.3 billion reais (231.3 billion dollars at the current exchange rate) over ten years. An additional 19.2 billion reais could…

Czech and Polish anti-inflation plans may work better

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EASTERN EUROPE

Budget constraints make it difficult for the Czech, Hungarian, Polish and Slovak authorities to help households and firms suffering as a result of the economic shocks caused by…

Elections could destabilise central Andean states

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LATIN AMERICA

All are suffering from uncertainties posed by the impact of the COVID-19 crisis, but also by social divides and institutional weaknesses. These pose major uncertainties as to…