Salvadoran opposition sets sights on return to power

Significance

This is bad news for the ruling Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front (FMLN), which has been losing support thanks to El Salvador’s weak security situation and widespread perceptions of government ineffectiveness. With ARENA the dominant party at municipal and legislative level, the FMLN will be on the back foot going into presidential election campaigning in 2019.

Impacts

• Sluggish economic growth in 2018 will further fuel anti-FMLN sentiment.
• The end of US Temporary Protected Status for Salvadorans in 2019 may eventually hit remittance income, further undermining growth.
• ARENA’s victory will increase political polarisation, given its deep unpopularity with the left.