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Prospects for Russian foreign policy to end-2022

Location:

PROSPECTS H2 2022

Prospects for Russian foreign policy to end-2022.

Putin is unlikely to tempt Russia’s wealthy to return

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RUSSIA

Mikhail Khodorkovsky and Leonid Volkov, among others, contend that imposing sanctions on critics of the war is unfair, and that other sanctioned elites might be encouraged to…

Ukraine's allies will press for Russian reparations

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RUSSIA/UKRAINE

Aside from considering war crimes, Western leaders are also preparing to levy costs on Moscow for the damage it has done. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said…

Russia and also Europe to suffer from EU sanctions

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INTERNATIONAL

EU leaders accept that the measures will undercut EU growth and increase the risks of recession. They have less appetite than Washington for further sanctions, reflecting their…

Prospects for Russia in 2024

Location:

PROSPECTS 2024

Vladimir Putin is almost certain to run and win, keeping him in power for at least six more years. Neither the war with Ukraine, nor an inflation-strained economy, are likely to…

Normal politics will not return to Ukraine soon

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UKRAINE

The invasion has consolidated public opinion around President Volodymyr Zelensky and increased the power of the security apparatus, helping kickstart some reforms but also…

Russia's slimmed-down war aims still rule out peace

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RUSSIA/UKRAINE

The decision comes as Russian forces enter parts of Severodonesk, a key objective in south-eastern Ukraine. Still, Russia has not gained enough ground to declare an end to its…

Turkey is adopting a more statesmanlike pose abroad

Location:

TURKEY

Turkey has brokered an agreement between Russia and Ukraine for resuming grain shipments through the Black Sea which, if it sticks, will be a substantial diplomatic win for Ankara…