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Attacks on Russian refineries will cause oil shortages

Location:

RUSSIA

The rising frequency of drone attacks is raising the risk of oil product shortages within Russia. Already Western sanctions on the supply of spare parts had made the maintenance…

Rising Russian investment will cause structural change

Location:

RUSSIA

The war in Ukraine, Western sanctions and the redirection of external trade away from Europe towards new partners all required a surge in investment. The bulk of new investment…

Militarisation will cause rising distortions in Russia

Location:

RUSSIA

Record levels of defence spending have led to surging demand for inputs used to manufacture military equipment, driving up output across various sectors. However, evidence of…

War threatens Russia’s position as arms exporter

Location:

RUSSIA

A combination of the threat of US sanctions, shifting patterns of demand on international markets, and the growing demands of Russia’s own military has caused arms exports to…

Ukraine crisis will bring heavy costs for Europe

Location:

EU

The sanctions amount to a middle-of-the-road approach: leaders agreed to keep Russia in the SWIFT payment system and avoid targeting Russian energy exports. They will not cause…

Smaller trade surplus will keep ruble low this year

Location:

RUSSIA

Pronounced ruble depreciation this year attests to the efficacy of sanctions in disrupting Russia’s external trade. The weaker ruble has already provoked a spike in household…

Russian arms sales to South-east Asia will fall

Location:

SOUTH-EAST ASIA

Russia is a relatively modest player in South-east Asia in terms of economic footprint, political influence and defence diplomacy. However, its arms sales to the region have…

Economic woes to mark succession preparation in Cuba

Location:

CUBA

The Cuban economy.

Belarus will seek closer integration with Russia

Location:

BELARUS

With both countries facing isolation from the West, Russia and Belarus are seeking to move closer together. The contact mechanisms of the Union State of Russia and Belarus are…

Moscow can afford the war in Ukraine

Location:

RUSSIA

Hopes that sanctions and a sclerotic economy will hinder Russia’s war effort are likely to prove misplaced. Careful management of the budget and healthy oil revenues mean that the…