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Strikes will increase political pressure on Rabat

Location:

MOROCCO

There have been protracted negotiations following strikes by teachers last year. Concerns over continued disruption to education and possible contagion to other sectors are…

Saudi Aramco will seek to manage rapid industry change

Location:

SAUDI ARABIA

Yet this follows a government directive that the company cancel increases in its maximum sustainable capacity (MSC) of crude oil production from 12 million barrels per day (b/d…

Gulf economies are on a stable track despite risks

Location:

GULF STATES

The IMF has revised downwards its forecast for Saudi GDP growth in 2024 to 2.7% but raised its 2025 forecast to 5.5%. This reflects a positive medium-term outlook for the Gulf…

Kazakhstan will struggle to boost oil output

Location:

KAZAKHSTAN

Astana's aspirations to reach 2 million b/d have been set back by difficulties in raising output at major fields. Government efforts to diversify the economy away from…

Argentina stabilisation plan will prove challenging

Location:

ARGENTINA

With Milei now predicting six months of stagflation and up to two years to reduce inflation from triple digits, dollarisation appears to have been shelved. Instead, he seems…

Major tests lie ahead for Ecuador’s Noboa

Location:

ECUADOR

The legislation’s smooth journey through Congress illustrates the pragmatic relationship Noboa has established with the legislature. This, however, will be difficult to maintain…

Rapid recovery will prove elusive in Argentina

Location:

ARGENTINA

The primary surplus (0.6% of GDP) was driven by a 35% real fall in primary spending, which offset a recession-induced 4.5% drop in revenues. Month-on-month inflation has also…

Brazil's fiscal situation will improve gradually

Location:

BRAZIL

That followed a primary surplus equivalent to 0.5% of GDP in 2022. The negative result in 2023 was partly caused by exceptional circumstances, notably the early payment of…

Risks will outweigh recovery chances in Eastern Europe

Location:

EASTERN EUROPE

The economic environment has been dictated by Russia’s war in Ukraine and its market and policy implications. Next year, the prospects for the V4 economies are moderately upbeat…

China will increase investment in emerging markets

Location:

CHINA

Although its investments in Africa have attracted considerable attention, the vast majority of China's OFDI has gone to Asia, principally Hong Kong and a few financial centres…