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El Salvador poverty will create problems for Bukele

Location:

EL SALVADOR

President Nayib Bukele is highly popular, having implemented hard-line security policies that have reduced murder rates dramatically. He was re-elected in February by a landslide…

Exit of Russian troops signals shift away from Armenia

Location:

ARMENIA/AZERBAIJAN

The visit followed Moscow’s decision to pull out its last remaining troops from Nagorno-Karabakh before the expiration of their peacekeeping mandate. This reflects the Kremlin’s…

Iraqi provincial polls will boost incumbent control

Location:

IRAQ

The vote will reinstate provincial councils that were dissolved in 2019, which will in turn choose new provincial governors. The government is determined to hold an effective…

Threats of instability in Libya abound in 2024

Location:

LIBYA

While a 2020 ceasefire still holds, in the absence of new elections, the political landscape is significantly undermined by institutional rivalry. The country's fragmentation…

Turkish foreign policy will seek a power balance

Location:

TURKEY

Turkey’s confrontation with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) is a key driver of regional and to some extent international policy. Erdogan’s comfortable victory in the May 2023…

Bosnian Serbs are moving closer to exiting BiH

Location:

BOSNIA

Dodik’s law would transfer responsibility for elections in RS from the Central Electoral Commission to its RS equivalent, severing the RS political system from BiH and enabling…

West Bank instability risks are high

Location:

PALESTINIANS

Even before the attacks of October 7, 2023, tensions were heightened because of settlements, weak Palestinian Authority (PA) governance and militant activities. Hamas and…

Armed group attack reverses Burundi-Rwanda thaw

Location:

BURUNDI/RWANDA

Burundian President Evariste Ndayishimiye accused Rwanda of supporting the attackers. Both countries have troops in the DRC, on opposing sides of the M23 conflict. The attack has…

Gaza will strain but not break Gulf-Iranian detente

Location:

GULF STATES

While tensions across the region have risen sharply, Gulf and Iranian officials have engaged in regular and high-level dialogue that has so far prevented a wider conflagration…

EU countries will struggle to externalise asylum

Location:

EU

Alarmed by an increase of irregular border crossings, rising numbers of asylum seekers and pressures by far-right parties, several EU governments are contemplating ideas to…