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Georgia will face serious obstacles to EU membership

Location:

GEORGIA

Georgia officially embarked on the path to EU membership along with Ukraine and Moldova shortly after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Despite Tbilisi not meeting the…

Expropriation risks for foreigners in Russia will rise

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RUSSIA

Operating restrictions on Western firms since 2022 have expanded into expropriation risks over the last year. This month Putin signed a decree to authorise the seizure of US…

China-Germany ties will be impacted by trade clashes

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CHINA/GERMANY

Germany’s trade and supply-chain dependence on China, and its sizeable corporate investments in the country, are at odds with pressure from both Brussels and Washington to take a…

Zelensky will retain power despite legitimacy concerns

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UKRAINE

President Volodymyr Zelensky’s original five-year term legally expired last week. The absence of a presidential election -- effectively ruled out by the ongoing war -- has allowed…

China’s army will step up reform efforts

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CHINA

This was consistent with a long-running emphasis on preparing the PLA for future warfare that involves new types of informational and technological dynamics. One effect will be to…

Bosnian Serbs are unlikely to seek independence yet

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BOSNIA-HERCEGOVINA

The move followed changes to the Bosnia-Hercegovina (BiH) election law, aimed at enhancing electoral transparency, imposed by High Representative Christian Schmidt. RS President…

Russia's overheating economy will cool

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RUSSIA

Soaring government spending, driven by the war in Ukraine, has pushed economic activity beyond levels many thought possible given the available supply of labour and capital. Yet…

Baku will resist a quick peace deal with Armenia

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ARMENIA

The latest round of talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Geneva on March 22 ended without any concrete progress on negotiations over a bilateral peace agreement. The meeting…

EU defence ambitions face constraints

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EU

Their objectives are to enhance EU cooperation and self-sufficiency in the areas of arms production and procurement, in order to make the EU more resilient in defence and enhance…

Landslide win gives Putin six more years

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RUSSIA

Putin won 87% of the vote on 74% turnout, surpassing the 68% seen in 2018. Communist candidate Nikolai Kharitonov came second with just under 4%. Scattered opposition protests and…