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Ukraine’s EU membership will not be fast-tracked

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EU

This is a morale booster for Kyiv, but a lengthy accession procedure, likely vetoes from pro-Russian or Ukrainian-neutral governments, and uncertainty over the war’s course will…

Gaza overspill is a possible risk to Balkan security

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BALKANS

After an incident in late September that left one Kosovar police officer and three Serbian gunmen dead, the dispute over Kosovo’s sovereignty has become more dangerous, prompting…

China’s South-east Asian defence ties face constraints

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CHINA

South-east Asia is a key theatre in which Chinese-US strategic rivalry plays out. Beijing is counting on regional defence diplomacy to help it push back against the United States…

Japan will raise defence spending and cut deficits

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JAPAN

The budget is likely to be enacted by the end of the current fiscal year in March 2024. Rapidly increasing military spending reflects drastic changes in Tokyo’s defence policy. On…

Colombia's ELN ceasefire is fragile step towards peace

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COLOMBIA

The arrangement, which will come into effect nationwide from August 3, is intended initially to last for six months. It represents the furthest that any government has managed to…

Ukraine’s war recovery will need more external funding

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UKRAINE/INT

Co-organised by the UK and Ukrainian governments, the conference concentrated on Ukraine’s economic stabilisation and recovery from the effects of war. A follow-up to URC2022 held…

French riots have potential to cause long-term effects

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FRANCE

The riots appeared to abate and then almost cease on the nights of July 1 and 2 but the situation remains extremely tense and authorities fear that a new escalation is possible.

Beijing-ASEAN South China Sea tensions will grow

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CHINA/ASEAN

While there is always potential for unplanned escalation, recent incidents in the area are unlikely to change the basic dynamics there: China’s increasing assertion of ‘on-water’…

Ukrainian military reshuffle is a gamble for Zelensky

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UKRAINE

The appointment of General Oleksandr Syrsky as Zaluzhny's replacement and of other senior officers to the military command is the greatest political change in Ukraine since the…

Eastern Europe’s defence industries will modernise

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EASTERN EUROPE

FSVTS explicitly mentioned facilities in Bulgaria and the Czech Republic. Both countries are sizeable arms manufacturers and exporters, but also rely on certain Russian supplies…