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Militarisation will cause rising distortions in Russia

Location:

RUSSIA

Record levels of defence spending have led to surging demand for inputs used to manufacture military equipment, driving up output across various sectors. However, evidence of…

High employment and low wages will curb Russian growth

Location:

RUSSIA

In defiance of expectations following the imposition of severe sanctions, the unemployment rate has hovered around 3.2%. Yet rather than a sign of resilience, low unemployment…

Kazakhstan will struggle to boost oil output

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KAZAKHSTAN

Astana's aspirations to reach 2 million b/d have been set back by difficulties in raising output at major fields. Government efforts to diversify the economy away from…

Strains of war are beginning to show in Russia

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RUSSIA

The invasion of Ukraine is causing strains in Russian society to show, with opposition to another mobilisation and rising appetite for peace talks. The economy is overheating in…

Prospects for the Russian economy to end-2023

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PROSPECTS H2 2023

Despite recent economic stabilisation, future growth prospects are severely limited owing to Russia’s international isolation. A prolonged war in Ukraine would threaten the…

Smaller trade surplus will keep ruble low this year

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RUSSIA

Pronounced ruble depreciation this year attests to the efficacy of sanctions in disrupting Russia’s external trade. The weaker ruble has already provoked a spike in household…

Ukraine’s leadership reset will have a limited effect

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UKRAINE

As with the February reshuffle of the military command, these changes have been presented as part of an effort to ‘reset’ decision-making and improve governance. The president's…