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Pragmatism will sustain Italy’s support for Ukraine

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ITALY

Allies feared that the election of Meloni and her populist right-wing government last September would threaten Western unity over Ukraine. However, Meloni has used the issue to…

Germany’s CDU will shift further to the right

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GERMANY

After months of internal division, the CDU’s senior figures united behind leader Friedrich Merz, elected a new executive and adopted a new programme that marks a reversion to…

Argentina's Milei shifts to foreign policy pragmatism

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ARGENTINA

Milei met National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, while his team met the Treasury and IMF to present a structural adjustment plan. Likely Foreign Minister Diana Mondino also…

Prospects for Venezuela in 2024

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PROSPECTS 2024

The outlook for the government is positive. A thaw in relations with the United States and EU, plus sanctions relief, will bring economic benefits and social spending. The slow…

Iran-Azerbaijan relations will improve

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IRAN/AZERBAIJAN

Relations between Azerbaijan and Iran have tended to oscillate between distrust and outright animosity. However, recent events and official statements signal that the two sides…

Maduro concerns could bring new Venezuela candidates

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VENEZUELA

This is despite the efforts of a succession of US presidents and Venezuelan opposition leaders, and despite the US sanctions regime. Given his record of victories against external…

Russia will target expanded BRICS for grain exports

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RUSSIA

The entry into BRICS of Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) -- all major importers of grain -- gives Russia an opportunity permanently to…

New Irish leader will struggle to reverse polls

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IRELAND

Harris replaces Leo Varadkar, who surprisingly announced that he was stepping down ahead of local, EU and national elections. In his first speech as party leader, Harris suggested…

Turkish foreign policy will seek a power balance

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TURKEY

Turkey’s confrontation with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) is a key driver of regional and to some extent international policy. Erdogan’s comfortable victory in the May 2023…

Intense horse-trading lies ahead in Indonesia

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INDONESIA

Official results should be announced by March 20.