Germany’s CDU will shift further to the right

Significance

After months of internal division, the CDU’s senior figures united behind leader Friedrich Merz, elected a new executive and adopted a new programme that marks a reversion to conviction politics from the pragmatism of the Merkel era. Polls suggest the CDU is on course to win the 2025 federal elections and lead the next government.

Impacts

• The CDU is pledging to be more supportive of Ukraine's war effort, compared with the current coalition.
• Based on the current polls, a coalition between the CDU and Social Democrats (SPD) is the most likely government after the next elections.
• Poor results for the current governing parties in the upcoming EU and state elections would increase policy tensions.