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Armenia's relations with Russia will worsen

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ARMENIA

The rapid defeat of ethnic Armenian forces exposed the weakness of Russian security guarantees. Yerevan had already expressed dissatisfaction with Moscow's diminishing ability to…

Russia will stay in Africa after Wagner mutiny

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AFRICA

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has attempted to reassure Wagner’s African clients that operations will continue as normal. However, reports have emerged of considerable…

Israel’s Gaza war will spill over but not ignite Syria

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SYRIA

Meanwhile, in the same atmosphere of regional escalation, the United States has also targeted sites in Syrian territory as it retaliates against Iran-backed Iraqi armed groups…

Mozambique faces difficult days ahead

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MOZAMBIQUE

Beyond the major security and humanitarian concerns this is generating, it has also worried investors who were already hesitant about supporting the restart of liquefied natural…

West Bank instability risks are high

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PALESTINIANS

Even before the attacks of October 7, 2023, tensions were heightened because of settlements, weak Palestinian Authority (PA) governance and militant activities. Hamas and…

Somali offensive against al-Shabaab faces setbacks

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SOMALIA

This follows multiple political and military setbacks in the FGS’s offensive against jihadist group al-Shabaab, which has delivered notable gains over the past year but is now at…

Arctic neighbours will approach Russia cautiously

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ARCTIC

Norwegian armed forces’ chief of operations Lieutenant-General Yngve Odlo hosted Lieutenant-General Stanislav Maslov, head of the Western Arctic Border Directorate of the Russian…

China’s army will step up reform efforts

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CHINA

This was consistent with a long-running emphasis on preparing the PLA for future warfare that involves new types of informational and technological dynamics. One effect will be to…

Egypt will try to strengthen its position in Libya

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LIBYA

This was a show of strength and a threat to Cairo, given the value of remittances sent home by the many Egyptian labourers in the east. The move reflected the undercurrent of…

Maritime security risks may increase in the Gulf

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GULF STATES

The statement comes on the back of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) announcing on May 31 that it withdrew two months ago from the Combined Maritime Forces, a US-led maritime…