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Fading support for Ukraine will affect EU policymaking

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EU

This suggests a growing disconnect within European society from the realities of the war and a decrease in the perceived threat posed by Russia. This outcome reflects heightened…

EU’s Visegrad Four will not continue in current format

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EU

Poland may have resolved its rule-of-law dispute with the EU, whereas part of Hungary’s ‘cohesion’ funds are frozen. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has driven a wedge between Poland…

Far-right influence to grow in Romania and Bulgaria

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ROMANIA/BULGARIA

The far right is making gains in Romania and its neighbour Bulgaria. The rise of AUR and Bulgaria’s populist pro-Russian Revival (Vazrazhdane) party will bolster other extremist…

Slovak-Hungarian entente will not affect Western unity

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SLOVAKIA

The programme includes halting official military aid to Ukraine, as incoming Prime Minister Robert Fico promised during the election campaign. Recent elections in Central Europe…

Ukrainian refugees will stretch eastern EU’s welcome

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EASTERN EU

The war in Ukraine is uniting Central-East European (CEE) populations in support of Ukrainians and against ties with the Putin government. However, it is muddying attitudes to…

Radical nationalists could upset new Slovak government

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SLOVAKIA

Incoming Prime Minister Robert Fico’s gradual adoption of nationalism, aversion to migration and conspiracy theories have jeopardised Slovakia’s reputation as a reliable partner…

Enhanced NATO role may curb Russia's Baltic ambitions

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BALTIC STATES

Security challenges and responses in the Baltic states.

Belarus will try to square Western ties with Russia

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BELARUS

Belarus's attempts to court the EU and the United States.

Biden will push rule of law in Central-Eastern Europe

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CENTRAL-EASTERN EUROPE/US

A more functional US-EU collaboration will have collateral effects on elite behaviour and agendas in Central-Eastern Europe (CEE). The emphasis of the Biden administration's…

Russia-Belarus wargames reinforce key messages

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RUSSIA/BELARUS

In reality, the two armies remain separate because of Lukashenka's past opposition to hosting Russian troops permanently, though, as he noted, they are poised to collaborate in…