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Relative prosperity will prolong Libya's civil war

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LIBYA

His comments are optimistic. The other two rival administrations that are based in Libya have resisted efforts to form a unified government, while armed groups (some associated…

Prospects for the Levant in 2021

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PROSPECTS 2021

However, in 2021 they will all face two common challenges: recovering from major economic shocks in 2020 and reorienting to US policy shifts under a Biden presidency. From…

Bahrain will tightly control pro-Palestinian activity

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BAHRAIN

It is also the first summit that Bahrain has hosted since signing the US-sponsored Abraham Accords in 2020 establishing diplomatic ties with Israel.

Gaza will strain but not break Gulf-Iranian detente

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GULF STATES

While tensions across the region have risen sharply, Gulf and Iranian officials have engaged in regular and high-level dialogue that has so far prevented a wider conflagration…

Gaza war will hit non-oil Middle East economies hard

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MIDDLE EAST

The conflict will damage the economic prospects of Israel, Egypt and Jordan, even without a major regional escalation. The Gulf Arab states, Iraq and Algeria will benefit from the…

Emirati foreign policy will draw strong criticism

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UNITED ARAB EMIRATES

The conflict has created tensions between the UAE’s leaders and Arab public opinion. Over the longer term, the country’s assertive foreign policy has also drawn criticism from its…

The Palestinian Authority faces existential threats

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PALESTINIANS

This followed the deaths of three Palestinians in an Israeli army incursion there on August 6, emphasising that the major two-day military assault on Jenin in early July failed to…

Oman's diplomatic stature will rise

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OMAN

This underlines the country’s diplomatic value as the go-to regional mediator and validates its traditional foreign policy of neutrality.

Libyans are preparing for new phase of conflict

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LIBYA

The Cairo talks potentially represent the last chance for a deal between eastern and western factions, and their respective foreign backers. In late June, the current roadmaps…

Emirati shift may intensify Yemen conflict

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YEMEN

This follows an unusual Huthi drone and missile attack against the United Arab Emirates (UAE, a partner in the coalition), which killed three people. The Huthis were responding to…