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Early Argentine economic successes are unsustainable

Location:

ARGENTINA

The government has posted the first fiscal surplus in years, inflation has declined and foreign currency reserves have risen from USD21.0bn in mid-December to USD28.5bn. However…

China’s grain production will be focused in the north

Location:

CHINA

The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said that the country’s 37 genetically modified (GM) corn varieties and 14 GM soybean varieties have passed preliminary examinations…

Iron ore is set to face a supply surplus from 2025/26

Location:

INT

Beijing seeks to reduce price volatility for ore and hence steel through market restructuring and to increase Chinese self-sufficiency. This comes at a time when ore exporters…

Brazil's fiscal situation will improve gradually

Location:

BRAZIL

That followed a primary surplus equivalent to 0.5% of GDP in 2022. The negative result in 2023 was partly caused by exceptional circumstances, notably the early payment of…

IMF deal will bring little relief in Argentina

Location:

ARGENTINA

The new agreement envisages a primary surplus of 2% of GDP, a zero general deficit and reserves accumulation of USD10bn; it includes no new funding. However, the widening gap…

Libyan energy ambitions will likely fall short

Location:

LIBYA

Earlier, on January 7, NOC was forced to declare force majeure at Sharara oil field, the country’s largest, after protests shut it down. Oil and gas usually account for more than…

After a strong year for Australia, growth will slow

Location:

AUSTRALIA

This figure is higher than the RBA’s forecast of 1.5%, as labour demand remains strong and business investment resumes as supply chain disruption subsides. However, persistent…

Rapid recovery will prove elusive in Argentina

Location:

ARGENTINA

The primary surplus (0.6% of GDP) was driven by a 35% real fall in primary spending, which offset a recession-induced 4.5% drop in revenues. Month-on-month inflation has also…

No easy fix to fertiliser non-greenness

Location:

INT

Fertiliser use will grow, driven by population growth in developing economies. Emissions from fertiliser use will also grow, as decarbonisation options are high-cost and difficult…

EU fiscal reforms will reinforce regional divergence

Location:

EU

Though parameters have changed and national starting positions are recognised more, the reforms are not extensive. Debt and deficit targets remain. Indebted countries, principally…