No easy fix to fertiliser non-greenness

Significance

Fertiliser use will grow, driven by population growth in developing economies. Emissions from fertiliser use will also grow, as decarbonisation options are high-cost and difficult to scale and regulate. Nitrogen-based fertilisers pose environmental problems beyond their carbon emissions.

Impacts

• Russia will up output of nitrogen-based fertilisers as a means of exporting its gas surplus created by the loss of its European gas sales.
• Population growth will maintain demand for increased fertiliser production over the medium and longer term.
• The build-up of reactive nitrogen in the environment will increasingly affect biodiversity and water quality.